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Weekly Market Update: November 4, 2024



Arabica Coffee Dec '24 (KCZ24)


242.95s USc/lb -2.95 (-1.20%) 01/11/24 [ICE/US]


$8.26 AUD/kg


Robusta Coffee 10-T Jan '25 (RMF25)


4,279s USD/MT -90 (-2.06%) 01/11/2024 [ICE/EU]


$6.60 AUD/kg


Weather Impacts on Brazil and Vietnam Harvests Affect Global Coffee Prices

Recent rainfall in Brazil has alleviated previous concerns about drought, especially impacting the flowering season for Arabica coffee. This weather shift has contributed to a 3.5% drop in Arabica coffee futures on the New York Exchange, down to 248.40 US¢/lb, and a 4.4% decline for Robusta on the London Exchange, closing at USD 4,411/ton. In Vietnam, heavy rains have delayed the early stages of the harvest, which is expected to regain momentum by mid-November. This increase in harvest activity could lead to a rise in coffee availability on the physical market, possibly adding downward pressure on prices.


Exchange Rates and Coffee Market Dynamics

Currency fluctuations, particularly the strength of the Brazilian real against the U.S. dollar, have played a role in moderating coffee prices. The Brazilian real saw a slight gain of 0.1% this week, closing at BRL 5.70 per USD, which helped soften the decline in domestic coffee prices. With the real’s strength, coffee prices within Brazil saw only a 1.8% drop for Arabica and a 1.3% drop for Robusta. Additionally, futures markets indicate strong investor interest, though demand remains tempered by cautious trading, likely impacted by recent inflation figures and economic pressures globally.


European Union Deforestation Regulation Delayed

The implementation of the European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), initially expected in 2025, has been postponed for 12 months. This regulation, which requires importers to prove that coffee beans are sourced without contributing to deforestation, has driven stockpiling by importers in anticipation. The delay is seen as a relief for importers, providing additional time for compliance preparations. For Colombia, significant advancements have been made in traceability systems that align with EUDR requirements, potentially strengthening the country’s position in the European market.

 

  

Declining Demand and Intensified Competition Among Coffee Retailers

Consumer demand for coffee has faced a slowdown, with inflation pushing up retail prices. This trend has led to increased competition among major coffee brands. Starbucks and Keurig Dr. Pepper, among others, reported decreased sales, highlighting intensified market competition and promotional efforts to attract price-sensitive customers. The American coffee retail landscape may see new competition from the Chinese brand Luckin Coffee, which is exploring expansion in the U.S. market, potentially challenging Starbucks’ dominance.


Differentials and Price Trends by Region

The latest data shows notable shifts in coffee price differentials, with significant variations by origin. In Colombia, for instance, differentials for Excelso coffee increased, indicating a higher premium over New York coffee futures. Similar trends have been observed across various countries, including Vietnam, Ethiopia, and Brazil, reflecting regional differences in production costs, quality, and supply conditions.


Glossary of Terms


Differential: The difference in price between coffee from a specific origin and the international benchmark price, often based on quality, production costs, and supply factors.


EUDR (European Union Deforestation Regulation): The European Union Deforestation Regulation is a policy aimed at reducing deforestation associated with imports. It requires companies importing certain agricultural commodities, like coffee, to prove their products are not linked to deforestation. By mandating traceability and transparency, EUDR encourages sustainable sourcing practices. Initially set for implementation in 2025, the policy's enforcement has been delayed by 12 months, giving producers and importers additional time to meet compliance requirements.


ICE Futures (Intercontinental Exchange Futures): ICE Futures is a global commodity and financial exchange where various products, including coffee, are traded. The Intercontinental Exchange, or ICE, operates electronic marketplaces for trading futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell a commodity at a predetermined price and date. In the coffee market, ICE Futures, based in the U.S. and London, is particularly important for setting benchmark prices for Arabica and Robusta coffee. These benchmark prices influence global coffee prices and are a reference for producers, traders, and buyers worldwide.


Exchange Rates and Coffee Market Dynamics: The relationship between a country’s currency value and the U.S. dollar affects the international price of coffee. A strong currency in a coffee-producing country can make its exports more expensive globally, potentially reducing demand, while a weaker currency can make coffee exports more competitive, often increasing demand. Exchange rate shifts are vital to understanding coffee price trends and trade flows.

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